Open University Learning Analytics dataset

Learning Analytics focuses on the collection and analysis of learners’ data to improve their learning experience by providing informed guidance and to optimise learning materials. To support the research in this area we have developed a dataset, containing data from courses presented at the Open University (OU). What makes the dataset unique is the fact that it contains demographic data together with aggregated clickstream data of students’ interactions in the Virtual Learning Environment (VLE). This enables the analysis of student behaviour, represented by their actions. The dataset contains the information about 22 courses, 32,593 students, their assessment results, and logs of their interactions with the VLE represented by daily summaries of student clicks (10,655,280 entries). The dataset is freely available at https://analyse.kmi.open.ac.uk/open_dataset under a CC-BY 4.0 license

The ratio of means method as an alternative to mean differences for analyzing continuous outcome variables in meta-analysis: A simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meta-analysis of continuous outcomes traditionally uses mean difference (MD) or standardized mean difference (SMD; mean difference in pooled standard deviation (SD) units). We recently used an alternative ratio of mean values (RoM) method, calculating RoM for each study and estimating its variance by the delta method. SMD and RoM allow pooling of outcomes expressed in different units and comparisons of effect sizes across interventions, but RoM interpretation does not require knowledge of the pooled SD, a quantity generally unknown to clinicians.</p> <p>Objectives and methods</p> <p>To evaluate performance characteristics of MD, SMD and RoM using simulated data sets and representative parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MD was relatively bias-free. SMD exhibited bias (~5%) towards no effect in scenarios with few patients per trial (n = 10). RoM was bias-free except for some scenarios with broad distributions (SD 70% of mean value) and medium-to-large effect sizes (0.5–0.8 pooled SD units), for which bias ranged from -4 to 2% (negative sign denotes bias towards no effect). Coverage was as expected for all effect measures in all scenarios with minimal bias. RoM scenarios with bias towards no effect exceeding 1.5% demonstrated lower coverage of the 95% confidence interval than MD (89–92% vs. 92–94%). Statistical power was similar. Compared to MD, simulated heterogeneity estimates for SMD and RoM were lower in scenarios with bias because of decreased weighting of extreme values. Otherwise, heterogeneity was similar among methods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Simulation suggests that RoM exhibits comparable performance characteristics to MD and SMD. Favourable statistical properties and potentially simplified clinical interpretation justify the ratio of means method as an option for pooling continuous outcomes.</p

Dealing with substantial heterogeneity in Cochrane reviews. Cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dealing with heterogeneity in meta-analyses is often tricky, and there is only limited advice for authors on what to do. We investigated how authors addressed different degrees of heterogeneity, in particular whether they used a fixed effect model, which assumes that all the included studies are estimating the same true effect, or a random effects model where this is not assumed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We sampled randomly 60 Cochrane reviews from 2008, which presented a result in its first meta-analysis with substantial heterogeneity (I²greater than 50%, i.e. more than 50% of the variation is due to heterogeneity rather than chance). We extracted information on choice of statistical model, how the authors had handled the heterogeneity, and assessed the methodological quality of the reviews in relation to this.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The distribution of heterogeneity was rather uniform in the whole I²interval, 50-100%. A fixed effect model was used in 33 reviews (55%), but there was no correlation between I²and choice of model (P = 0.79). We considered that 20 reviews (33%), 16 of which had used a fixed effect model, had major problems. The most common problems were: use of a fixed effect model and lack of rationale for choice of that model, lack of comment on even severe heterogeneity and of reservations and explanations of its likely causes. The problematic reviews had significantly fewer included trials than other reviews (4.3 vs. 8.0, P = 0.024). The problems became less pronounced with time, as those reviews that were most recently updated more often used a random effects model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>One-third of Cochrane reviews with substantial heterogeneity had major problems in relation to their handling of heterogeneity. More attention is needed to this issue, as the problems we identified can be essential for the conclusions of the reviews.</p

An empirical study using permutation-based resampling in meta-regression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In meta-regression, as the number of trials in the analyses decreases, the risk of false positives or false negatives increases. This is partly due to the assumption of normality that may not hold in small samples. Creation of a distribution from the observed trials using permutation methods to calculate <it>P </it>values may allow for less spurious findings. Permutation has not been empirically tested in meta-regression. The objective of this study was to perform an empirical investigation to explore the differences in results for meta-analyses on a small number of trials using standard large sample approaches verses permutation-based methods for meta-regression.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We isolated a sample of randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) for interventions that have a small number of trials (herbal medicine trials). Trials were then grouped by herbal species and condition and assessed for methodological quality using the Jadad scale, and data were extracted for each outcome. Finally, we performed meta-analyses on the primary outcome of each group of trials and meta-regression for methodological quality subgroups within each meta-analysis. We used large sample methods and permutation methods in our meta-regression modeling. We then compared final models and final <it>P </it>values between methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We collected 110 trials across 5 intervention/outcome pairings and 5 to 10 trials per covariate. When applying large sample methods and permutation-based methods in our backwards stepwise regression the covariates in the final models were identical in all cases. The <it>P </it>values for the covariates in the final model were larger in 78% (7/9) of the cases for permutation and identical for 22% (2/9) of the cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We present empirical evidence that permutation-based resampling may not change final models when using backwards stepwise regression, but may increase <it>P </it>values in meta-regression of multiple covariates for relatively small amount of trials.</p

Behaviour change techniques to optimise participation in physical activity or exercise in adolescents and young adults with chronic cardiorespiratory conditions: a systematic review

Participation in regular physical activity decreases the risk of developing cardiometabolic disease. However, the proportion of people who participate in the recommended amount of physical activity is low, with common barriers including competing interests and inclement weather. In people with chronic cardiorespiratory conditions, participation in physical activity is reduced further by disease-specific barriers; time-burden of treatment and unpleasant symptoms during physical activity. Addressing these barriers during adolescence and early adulthood may promote greater physical activity participation into older age. The aim of this review was, in people aged 15 to 45 years with chronic cardiorespiratory conditions, to classify interventions aimed at optimising participation in physical activity as 'promising' or 'not promising', and categorise the behaviour change techniques (BCTs) within these interventions. Nine databases and registries were searched (October 2017) for studies that reported objective measures of physical activity before and after an intervention period. Interventions were classified as 'promising' if a between-group difference in physical activity was demonstrated. Michie et al.'s (2013) v1 Taxonomy was used to unpack the BCTs within interventions. Across the six included studies (n = 396 participants), 19 (20%) of 93 BCTs were described. The interventions of three studies were classified as 'promising'. The most commonly used BCTs comprised goal setting, action planning and social support. Five BCTs were solely used in 'promising' interventions. Our review demonstrated that only 20% of BCTs have been utilised and isolated those BCTs that were used only in 'promising' physical activity interventions in adolescents and adults with chronic cardiorespiratory conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Stalking influenza by vaccination with pre-fusion headless HA mini-stem.

Inaccuracies in prediction of circulating viral strain genotypes and the possibility of novel reassortants causing a pandemic outbreak necessitate the development of an anti-influenza vaccine with increased breadth of protection and potential for rapid production and deployment. The hemagglutinin (HA) stem is a promising target for universal influenza vaccine as stem-specific antibodies have the potential to be broadly cross-reactive towards different HA subtypes. Here, we report the design of a bacterially expressed polypeptide that mimics a H5 HA stem by protein minimization to focus the antibody response towards the HA stem. The HA mini-stem folds as a trimer mimicking the HA prefusion conformation. It is resistant to thermal/chemical stress, and it binds to conformation-specific, HA stem-directed broadly neutralizing antibodies with high affinity. Mice vaccinated with the group 1 HA mini-stems are protected from morbidity and mortality against lethal challenge by both group 1 (H5 and H1) and group 2 (H3) influenza viruses, the first report of cross-group protection. Passive transfer of immune serum demonstrates the protection is mediated by stem-specific antibodies. Furthermore, antibodies indudced by these HA stems have broad HA reactivity, yet they do not have antibody-dependent enhancement activity

Quantum states made to measure

Recent progress in manipulating quantum states of light and matter brings quantum-enhanced measurements closer to prospective applications. The current challenge is to make quantum metrologic strategies robust against imperfections.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, Commentary for Nature Photonic

An accurate test for homogeneity of odds ratios based on Cochran's Q-statistic

Background: A frequently used statistic for testing homogeneity in a meta-analysis of K independent studies is Cochran's Q. For a standard test of homogeneity the Q statistic is referred to a chi-square distribution with K - 1 degrees of freedom. For the situation in which the effects of the studies are logarithms of odds ratios, the chi-square distribution is much too conservative for moderate size studies, although it may be asymptotically correct as the individual studies become large. Methods: Using a mixture of theoretical results and simulations, we provide formulas to estimate the shape and scale parameters of a gamma distribution to t the distribution of Q. Results: Simulation studies show that the gamma distribution is a good approximation to the distribution for Q. Conclusions: : Use of the gamma distribution instead of the chi-square distribution for Q should eliminate inaccurate inferences in assessing homogeneity in a meta-analysis. (A computer program for implementing this test is provided.) This hypothesis test is competitive with the Breslow-Day test both in accuracy of level and in power